Philippine Stock Market: Prospects in 2022

April Lee Tan, COLFinancial

• Risks are the rising inflation, FED rate hikes, COVID, and elections
• There are also risks to being too cautious and not participating in the market
• The local stock market historically went up 3 months before and 3 months after the election
• We are coming from a low base from the lackluster performance last year
• It’s an open secret that the markets like Leni Robredo
• The government is not as strict anymore in terms of lockdowns and people might be thinking that there might be another surge
• “If the US sneezes, everyone catches a cold.” It’s a “buy on dip” market.
• We are in the transition from being in a bear market to a bull market
• Consumer stocks are not doing well but the media stocks are doing okay
• The negatives are already priced in

Angelo Taningco, SB Equities

• The local stock market underperformed last year compared to neighbors due to intermittent surges and lockdowns
• Optimism this year was fueled by the economic data being above expectations
• Cautiously optimistic in the near term also due to geopolitical concerns (Russia vs. Ukraine)
• The economic agenda of the next administration is also a source of uncertainty 
• Core inflation is a good indicator of demand-pull
• FED rate hikes may have knee-jerk reactions to stocks and bonds (The first one will be in March)
• The geopolitical risk is coupled with rising inflation, rate hikes, and monetary tightening
• We are in the recovery phase and on track to continue
• Cautious in the short-term and still positive in the medium to long term for the local market

John Michael Lapiña, Investa

• We need more volume of trading/liquidity in the local market to make it more attractive
• Watch out for these industries: Renewable Energy, Technology, and Mining
• 7% of Nickel supply is from Russia
• The mining sector and gaming sector can unlock more value for the Government
• PH is one of the hotspots for renewable energy for foreign investors
• Traders see the local stock market as being top-ish, it will take time to reach a new high
• We need to list more companies in our local stock market
• Given the volatility, it will be a trader’s playground
• Money can be made in a bull market but wealth can be made in a bear market
• In a “wait-and-see” approach due to what may happen to the Russia and Ukraine conflict